Will Cutting Migrant Numbers Save Aussie Jobs?

As the Australian Government continues to adjust skilled migration settings to manage population growth, economic resilience, and labour market needs, one question continues to stir debate: Does reducing migrant numbers actually help protect local jobs?

It’s a complex issue—especially in a country that relies on migration to support workforce growth in key industries such as healthcare, construction, and technology.

What’s Changed Since the Last Cut to Skilled Migration?

In 2024–25, the Australian Government revised the migration intake to a target of 185,000 permanent visas, including 132,200 under the Skilled Stream. While this represents a slight decrease from the COVID-recovery highs of 2022–23, it reflects a refocused strategy—not an abandonment of skilled migration.

The emphasis is now on targeted migration—filling persistent labour shortages without overwhelming infrastructure and housing capacity. Employers can still sponsor workers under the Temporary Skill Shortage (TSS) visa, provided they demonstrate genuine skills shortages that cannot be filled locally.

What’s the Impact on Local Employment?

The relationship between migration and local employment is not as zero-sum as it may seem. According to the Intergenerational Report 2023, migration plays a vital role in boosting workforce participation, economic growth, and productivity—especially in sectors with chronic skill shortages.

For example:

• Healthcare and aged care continue to rely on overseas-trained professionals to meet demand.
• Construction needs skilled tradespeople and engineers to deliver on national infrastructure goals.
• Technology faces a shortage of software engineers, cybersecurity specialists, and data analysts.

Cutting migration without local training pipelines in place can backfire—leading to project delays, wage inflation, and unmet service needs.

The Case for Smarter, Not Smaller Migration

While some stakeholders have historically supported cuts to migration during economic downturns, experts caution against reactionary reductions. Professor Phil Lewis of the University of Canberra has previously argued that migrants contribute more than they take—through housing demand, consumer spending, and entrepreneurship.

In fact, migrants often create jobs rather than take them, particularly when they settle in regions and industries where labour is scarce.

So, What’s the Right Approach?

The consensus among economists, employers, and workforce planners is clear: Australia needs a long-term skills and training strategy—and migration is just one piece of the puzzle.

This includes:

• Upskilling local workers through targeted education and training programs
• Encouraging younger Australians into in-demand fields like aged care, tech, and construction
• Maintaining flexible skilled migration pathways for roles with persistent shortages

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